Vape flavour bans linked to rise in cigarette sales, Canadian study finds

Restrictions on flavoured vaping products may be driving smokers back to cigarettes, according to a major new study analysing sales data across Canada.

The research, published in November 2025, examined the impact of provincial bans and restrictions on flavoured nicotine vaping products (NVPs) between 2018 and 2023. It found that while flavour policies almost wiped out sales of flavoured vapes in convenience and gas stores, they were also associated with a significant increase in cigarette sales .

Using wholesale cigarette shipment data from Health Canada and retail vape sales from NielsenIQ, the authors estimate that provinces introducing flavour restrictions saw cigarette sales rise by around 9.6 per cent, with some models suggesting the increase could be as high as 21.5 per cent. At the same time, sales of flavoured non-menthol vapes fell by almost 100 per cent, while mint and menthol products declined by more than 95 per cent in provinces without exemptions.

In contrast, sales of tobacco-flavoured and unflavoured vaping products rose sharply, increasing by more than 120 per cent, indicating strong substitution within the vape category. However, the authors argue this did not fully offset the loss of flavoured vape sales, leading to an overall decline in legal vaping purchases through convenience retail channels.

The study also analysed Google search data and found reduced online interest in vaping and vape shopping following flavour bans, suggesting limited displacement to vape shops or online sources rather than a simple shift in purchasing channels.

Importantly for policymakers, the findings held even in Canada’s tightly regulated tobacco environment, which includes a national ban on menthol cigarettes, plain packaging rules and a cap on nicotine strength in vapes. The authors say this strengthens the case that flavour restrictions can unintentionally boost cigarette consumption, even where smoking alternatives are already heavily controlled.

While the researchers caution that sales data does not directly measure consumer use, they conclude that flavour bans risk slowing the decline in cigarette smoking and may undermine public health objectives if smokers revert to combustible products.

With the UK continuing to debate tighter controls on flavoured vapes as part of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, the authors say the Canadian experience offers a clear warning about unintended consequences.

“These findings suggest that policymakers should proceed with caution in restricting NVP (nicotine vaping products) flavours: harm due to these policies’ unintended effects on cigarette consumption may outweigh the public health benefits from their impact on NVP use,” the authors wrote.