Disposable vape ban could risk smoking uptick without support measures: report

Up to 200,000 people may switch from vaping to smoking as a result of the forthcoming ban on disposable vapes – with a particular danger of a rise in smoking amongst younger people, a new report has warned.

The disposables ban, to be introduced from June 2025 is aimed at both tackling youth vaping and in delivering environmental benefits – it is estimated that five million single use vapes are thrown away in the UK every week.

The research report by the Future Health Research Centre finds that:

• 45% of vapers say that they ‘always’, ‘often’ or ‘sometimes’ use a disposable vape. The polling recorded higher rates of disposable vape use amongst those aged 18-24 than all other age groups
• As a result of the ban, 12% of people say they will switch from vaping to smoking. 54% of those using a disposable vape plan to switch to another vape, 15% plan to stop vaping altogether, with an additional 9% saying that they will stop vaping by using nicotine replacement therapies
• Younger people (18-24s) are more likely than other age groups to say that they would stop vaping as a result of the ban (20% vs 14%). They are also more likely to take up smoking as a result of the ban (16% vs 11%) and switch to nicotine replacement therapies (16% vs 7%). They are less likely to say that they would carry on using another vaping product than those in older age groups (46% vs 59%)
• Modelling scenarios based on the findings indicate that the smoking rate could increase by between 90,000 and 200,000 as a result of the disposable vapes ban
• This could add between 0.2 and 0.4% to the overall population smoking rate. To put such an increase in context, this would be a reverse of a typical five month period of smoking reduction seen over recent years
• The disposable vapes ban could see between 175,000 and 378,000 people stopping vaping, and between 630,000 and 1.36 million people switching to another vaping product

The report – commissioned and funded by Kenvue, the makers of Nicorette, with research undertaken independently by the policy research centre – argues that whilst the disposable vapes ban is welcome, particularly alongside the other actions set out in the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, there is a danger that the ban – if not managed carefully – could undermine the government ambitions to deliver a significant reduction in smoking by 2030.

The research scenarios also find that between 630,000 and 1.36 million people could switch to another vaping product following the disposables ban.

The report calls for the government to use new regulatory powers as soon as possible – on vaping branding, packaging and displays as well as restricting the use of flavour descriptors for vapes – to crackdown on the inappropriate promotion of vapes to younger people and the illicit vapes market. It also calls for new targets to monitor and prioritise reductions in youth vaping rates and to re-commit funding to a national mass media anti-smoking campaign – the previous government had committed £20 million to support campaigns supporting efforts at delivering a smokefree generation.

“These findings show that urgent work is needed to ensure that efforts to reduce youth vaping do not have the unintended consequence of increasing the numbers smoking – particularly amongst younger people,” Richard Sloggett, programme director of the Future Health Research Centre, former government special adviser and report author, said.

“With the ban looming, the government now needs to get on the front foot, commit to a national mass media anti-smoking campaign and set out more clearly how it will use its forthcoming regulatory powers through the Tobacco and Vapes Bill to help ensure that those using disposable vapes do not turn to smoking instead.”

Steve Brine, former public health minister and chair of the Health and Social Care Select Committee, who has contributed a foreword to the report, added: “The disposable vapes ban and the government’s wider action in tackling smoking present a massive step in the right direction for England in achieving the original smokefree ambition. But we are not there yet and as this research from Future Health shows, any complacency will have serious ramifications. The government needs to make sure that those using disposable vapes are aware of the ban, the alternatives to switch to following its introduction and the dangers of taking up or returning to smoking.”